A scenario calculator for SF housing development feasibility. Adjust inputs to see whether a project covers its required return, what rent or land value it implies, and how building height shifts total cost per unit.
Source: Modeled on the July 2026 SF housing feasibility research report.
Site
7,124 sf
$3.7M
Slider 0-10M; type above for larger values
Building
8
Ground floor retail
80%
83%
Tenure
Unit Mix
0%
Moves all four rents below together. Typing a rent pins it at the current level.
Studio9 units
Share20% (remainder)
Net sf
Rent $/mo
1 Bedroom20 units
Share%
Net sf
Rent $/mo
2 Bedroom13 units
Share%
Net sf
Rent $/mo
3 Bedroom2 units
Share%
Net sf
Rent $/mo
Construction cost
Type I High-RiseTop floor: 74 ftWithin 1 ft of the 75 ft high-rise cliff
$620/sf
Type I High-Rise applies at 8 stories. Implies $28.3M total hard cost.
Edit all four building types
$400/sf
SF hard costs: Turner and Townsend 2022, RLB index
$470/sf
$530/sf
$620/sf
Costs
25%
$40k
Impact fees and permits
5%
$1450/mo
7.50%
2 yr
2 yr
Revenue
5%
3.5%
Parking, storage, RUBS, fees
3.0%
Market-rate rents trended to stabilization (BMR and retail unaffected)
$10k
1.18%
California assessed value at completion (Prop 13)
0%
$40/sf/yr
10%
Capital and profit
5.00%
Required profit level
Low = +75 bps, Standard = +150 bps, High = +250 bps over cap rate
Does not pencil
3.8% yield on cost vs 6.5% required (gap 274 bps)
Units
44
2 BMR · 9 st · 20 1BR · 13 2BR · 2 3BR
Total dev cost
$43.9M
land + hard + soft + fees + carry
Cost per unit
$997k
Type I High-Rise
NOI
$1.6M
annual net operating income
Yield on cost
3.76%
vs 6.50% required
trended to stabilization: 4.3%
Stabilized value
$32.9M
NOI / cap rate, profit -$10.9M
What would make it work
Required market rent
1.7x today's rents
Studio$4,479/mo
1BR$6,801/mo
2BR$9,952/mo
3BR$12,275/mo
vs current blended $4,555/mo
Residual land value
-$10.5M
Negative: does not pencil even on free land
Negative residual land value, infeasible even on free land
Max hard cost supported
$311/sf
vs current 620/sf (Type I High-Rise)
Breakeven cap rate
N/A
at which this project exactly pencils vs current 5.00%
Cost per unit
Land$84k
Hard$642k
Soft$161k
Fees$40k
Carry$69k
Total / unit$997k
Development cost per unit by building height
Figures are modeled estimates calibrated to the SF Controller Triennial Feasibility Review 2026, RAND 2025 housing cost studies, Turner and Townsend construction index, and RLB cost benchmarks. Height-to-construction-type thresholds follow California building code conventions. Carry cost uses a simplified interest-only model on 35% average draw of construction costs plus full land interest. Property tax uses the Prop 13 closed form: assessed on stabilized value at completion, not total development cost. Trended yield applies to market-rate rents only (BMR and retail unaffected); lender underwriting uses untrended figures. All defaults are illustrative, not sourced comps. This calculator is for scenario analysis only and should not be used for investment decisions.