SF must permit 82,069 new homes by December 2031 under its 6th Cycle RHNA obligation — 10,259 units per year. At the current pace, the city will fall dramatically short.
2023–2024 use official HCD Annual Progress Report totals. 2025–present use DataSF (new construction + ADUs, issued permits only). Updated 2026-08-27.
| Year | Units Permitted | Annual Target | % of Target | Cumulative Units | Cumulative Target | Cumulative % | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3,113 | 10,259 | 30.3% | 3,113 | 10,259 | 30.3% | HCD APR (official) |
| 2024 | 1,072 | 10,259 | 10.4% | 4,185 | 20,517 | 20.4% | HCD APR (official) |
| 2025 | 1,702 | 10,259 | 16.6% | 5,887 | 30,776 | 19.1% | HCD APR (official) |
| 2026 (partial) | 2,191 | 5,984 | 36.6% | 8,078 | 36,760 | 22.0% | DataSF (est.) |
California's Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) requires every city to plan for and permit enough housing to meet projected regional demand. San Francisco's 6th Cycle obligation (2023–2031) is 82,069 units — about 10,259 per year. Cities that fail to demonstrate adequate progress face consequences under state law (SB 423), including loss of discretionary review authority over housing projects — effectively forcing ministerial approval of any project with ≥ 10% affordable units. SF is currently being required to report compliance annually (vs. every 2 years for other cities) due to prior shortfalls.
At the current pace of ~2,927 units/year, San Francisco is on track to permit approximately 21,006 units by 2031 — 74% short of the state mandate.
Methodology: 2023–2024 use official HCD Annual Progress Report (APR) totals from data.ca.gov, distributed proportionally across months using DataSF monthly shapes. 2025–present use DataSF Socrata API (dataset i98e-djp9): new construction + flagged ADU permits with status "issued", "complete", or "reinstated" and net new units ≥ 1. Excludes pre-permit entitlements ("approved" status). Last updated: 2026-08-27.